7月10日 A15 國際時事
題目：Before Obama leaves office，China should try hard to strike important deals with US
The Seventh US China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) held in Washington over the 22nd to 24th June presented the paradoxical state of relationships between the two most important countries in the world at the moment. The outline summary of the contents of the various discussions held between the two sides was overwhelmingly upbeat. The main focus was on environmental and sustainability issues. On these crucial matters, there seemed to be little real disagreement between the two. But on more complex security issues like cyber espionage or the South China Seas, there was mostly silence.
Starting with the positive side. A large number of environmental projects were mentioned, with detailed cooperation in areas like smart grids, the phasing out of energy inefficient technology, attempts to fish more sustainably, and assistance by America in helping China build green cities. Research and development co-operation got detailed attention, as did the phasing out of hydrofluorocarbons and enhancing dialogue on climate change.
It is profoundly good news that the two major players in environmental issues are able to identify so much common ground. It would be hard to imagine them working so harmoniously together even five years ago at the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit in 2009, where there were substantial differences between them. But that over half of the US statement reporting the outcomes of the 2015 dialogue covered issues broadly in this area shows just how high it has risen in their mutual agendas.
Part of this is due to leadership. Former president George W Bush was a climate change sceptic, and presided over a Senate and Congress who were divided on the issue. But the consensus in the US under President Obama has shifted. There is a recognition now that climate change caused by human activity is the key issue of our time and needs urgent attention.
While Chinese leaders have never subscribed to climate change denial ideas, in the past they operated within the framework where the critical issue for them was to produce GDP increases no matter what the consequences, in the belief that today’s mess could be cleared up tomorrow when China was wealthier. This, after all, Chinese leaders argued, was what western countries like the UK had done during the early stages of their development.
A blight of serious smogs from 2012 in major Chinese cities like Beijing and Shanghai, and an understanding of how serious the issues of soil, air and water quality had become has changed the internal discourse on this issue. For Xi jinping, since the Third Plenum in 2013 the environment has taken up a large amount of his time, with greater enforcement of compliance for enterprises in China, and greater attention to recognizing just how seriously the emerging Chinese middle class take this issue.
The confluence of these two phenomenon - more intense appreciation of how important dealing with the environment and sustainability is in both the US and China - have recast their dialogue, and made for more common ground. The Seventh S&ED is testament to this. It shows they largely speak a common language about these issues, and are even able to discuss exploration of shale gas resources in south China, and working on marine sustainability in the South China Sea. The overall framework of their engagement has been given even more impetus by the historic accord signed between Presidents Xi and Obama during the Asia Pacific Economic Conference in November last year.
For all the warm words and positive sentiments in this area (and they are very welcome and important) this brings us to the more negative aspect - the large silence on the contentious issues. There were a couple of issues that the Dialogue did not mention in any great detail. The first was on cyber security. Despite establishing a dialogue in this area in 2014, it has yet to meet due to claims by the US FBI last summer that PLA agents were in charge of hacking into US systems. Recent claims of even more commercial and government espionage have also issued from Washington, with vehement denials from Beijing, and counter claims emanating from it based on the Snowden revelations. On this issue, the two sides evidently do not see eye to eye, and it does not figure in their discussions.
Nor, in the overview of their international cooperation, does South China Seas matters get much attention. While recognizing Chinese positive involvement in the Iran nuclear deal, and in various issues in Africa and the Middle East, the majority of US concern in the last two years has been about what it claims is increasing assertiveness towards its neighbours by China in disputed maritime territory in the East and South China Seas.
The omission of these two issues from the record of the Dialogue issued by the State Department in particular, and in remarks made by State Counselor Yang Jiechi on the Chinese side and Secretary of State John Kerry on the US one either means that the two have decided it is best to deal with these issues through quieter diplomacy away from public view, or have simply failed to devise a relatively neutral framework in which they can, in a formal setting, discuss them publicly. This means they have either agreed to be quiet on these important matters because they believe there are better ways of addressing them elsewhere, or because they disagree so fundamentally they cannot talk about them.
China has a moment of strategic opportunity over the next 18 months. It is clear that President Obama will be increasingly seeking legacy issues as he draws closer to the end of his term in office in January 2017. Before the holding of the US election in November next year, he will want to achieve significant things. The recent success in getting Congressional approval for the Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations to proceed and in coming up with the Iran nuclear deal testify to this. His successor, whoever they will be, will, as almost all US presidents tend to do, spend a year burnishing their credentials, and therefore be less likely to want to risk any big new diplomatic initiatives.
One option for China is to forge the strongest possible foundation for environmental and sustainability accord in the next 18 months with the US, so that no new administration is able to undermine of change this. This is the safe strategy. Another, more risky but worth considering, is to try to hammer out a common framework for dealing with the two contentious issues mentioned above, so that at least they do not become political footballs for a new administration in Washington to exploit. We will know how likely either of these are when President Xi Jinping visits the US later this year. But the Dialogue has at least set up the best possible foundation for he and Obama to operate from.
Professor Kerry Brown
Kerry Brown is Professor of Chinese Politics and Director of the China Studies Centre, University of Sydney and Team Leader of the Europe China Research and Advice Network (ECRAN) funded by the European Union. He is an Associate Fellow of Chatham House, London and author of `Struggling Giant: China in the 21st Century’ (2007), `The Rise of the Dragon: Chinese Inward and Outward Investment in the Reform Era’ (2008), `Friends and Enemies: The Past, Present and Future of the Communist Party of China’ (2009), `Ballot Box China’ (2011), `China 2020’ (2011), `Hu Jintao: China’s Silent Leader'(forthcoming).